Commercial Use
The Phase II materially narrows the prior broad environmental uncertainty for commercial-use planning.
5501 FORWARD DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
Development Economics
Preliminary scenario underwriting, Phase II environmental update, DURA advancement, capital uses, and risk-control framework for 5501 E. 33rd Avenue.
5501 Forward remains in predevelopment. The purpose of this page is to show what has been de-risked, what still needs to be validated, and the directional “cowboy math” behind the principal development scenarios before larger capital is committed.
This page is for preliminary planning and discussion purposes only. It is not an offering memorandum, securities solicitation, appraisal, financing commitment, public funding approval, environmental clearance, demolition approval, or approved development plan. All figures remain directional and subject to consultant review, entitlement strategy, design feasibility, market validation, financing terms, and formal approvals.
Diligence Milestone
Environmental Diligence Update — Phase II Complete
The Phase II Environmental Site Assessment was completed August 21, 2026. Based on the investigation results, additional investigation of the recognized environmental conditions and vapor encroachment conditions identified in the Phase I does not appear warranted for commercial use.
Residential Vapor
Naphthalene in soil gas exceeded the residential screening level. Additional assessment may be warranted if residential development advances.
Former Fuel-Pump Area
Ground-penetrating radar identified subsurface anomalies that may warrant targeted investigation or a soil waste-management plan. If a UST is encountered, proper regulatory closure would be required.
Current underwriting posture: the former broad $350,000–$500,000 environmental-response envelope is not treated as a base-case project cost. Remaining environmental costs should be scoped from the actual Phase II findings, final development program, and consultant recommendations.
Public-Sector Advancement
DURA Advancement
On August 18, 2026, the Denver Urban Renewal Authority Board of Commissioners authorized DURA staff to move forward with the next phase of discussions for 5501 Forward. The next steps include defining the final project scope, reviewing project estimates and potential DURA participation, and negotiating a Redevelopment and Disbursement Agreement.
DURA staff are currently targeting the October 15, 2026 Board meeting for finalization and approval, subject to change. No DURA funding should be considered secured until the required agreement and Board approval process are completed.
Scenario Underwriting Framework
The project should not pursue height simply because height may be possible. Additional density should only advance if it improves risk-adjusted value after accounting for entitlement risk, community response, infrastructure, parking, construction cost, financing complexity, public benefit, and timing.
Control case / lowest entitlement-height risk
3-Story By-Right Control Case
Total Units
18–24
Residential SF
13,300–21,000 SF
Retail SF
2,000–3,500 SF
Parking
10–18 stalls or reduced parking strategy
Preliminary Cost
$8.3M–$10.4M
Entitlement Risk
Low / By-Right, subject to zoning confirmation
Practical baseline while higher-density alternatives are tested.
Primary feasibility study
6-Story Primary Feasibility Case
Total Units
50–70
Residential SF
35,500–60,000 SF
Retail SF
2,000–3,500 SF
Parking
25–45 stalls; structured, tuck-under, or reduced parking strategy
Preliminary Cost
$23M–$31.5M
Entitlement Risk
Moderate / High
Primary upside case if entitlement, parking, public benefit, cost, and market assumptions validate.
Higher-density sensitivity
8-Story Higher-Density Sensitivity
Total Units
75–95
Residential SF
53,750–80,250 SF
Retail SF
2,000–3,500 SF
Parking
40–65 stalls; likely structured or aggressive parking reduction
Preliminary Cost
$41M–$57M
Entitlement Risk
High
Preserve as a sensitivity unless entitlement, infrastructure, market, cost, and capital support further study.
Strategic upside sensitivity
10-Story Long-Range Entitlement Sensitivity
Total Units
100–125
Residential SF
72,000–105,750 SF
Retail SF
2,000–3,500 SF
Parking
50–85 stalls; structured or minimal-parking urban model
Preliminary Cost
$62M–$86M
Entitlement Risk
Very High
Long-range outer-boundary sensitivity only; not a proposed base plan.
Current planning read: 3 stories remains the by-right control case; 6 stories is the primary feasibility case; 8 and 10 stories remain upside sensitivities until the added entitlement, infrastructure, cost, market, and capital complexity is justified.
Post-Phase-II Predevelopment Capital
The next capital should fund the decision layer following completion of the Phase II ESA. It is not vertical construction capital and should not be used to imply that the final development scenario has been selected.
Recommended Initial Predevelopment Tranche
$250,000–$400,000
Purpose: entitlement and zoning strategy, architecture and massing studies, civil and utility feasibility, parking analysis, market validation, conceptual construction pricing, site stabilization, targeted environmental follow-up where warranted, and preparation of a decision-ready capital package.
Entitlement + Zoning
Confirm by-right assumptions and define realistic added-density pathways.
Architecture + Massing
Test 3-, 6-, 8-, and 10-story scenarios against actual site constraints and usable yield.
Civil + Utilities + Parking
Validate drainage, access, utility capacity, parking, ROW, and infrastructure implications.
Market + Product Validation
Validate rent, condo, retail, absorption, affordability, and exit assumptions.
Cost + Constructability
Develop conceptual construction pricing and identify cost drivers before larger capital decisions.
Capital Readiness
Prepare organized sources-and-uses, risk register, decision package, and materials for qualified capital partners.
Immediate Site-Readiness Planning
With Phase II completed, remaining near-term site-readiness planning should be separated from completed diligence rather than bundled together.
| Use | Planning Range | Purpose |
|---|---|---|
| Vacant Property Stabilization / Fencing / Monitoring | $11,000–$22,000 | Reduce trespass, dumping, vandalism, fire risk, nuisance conditions, and neighborhood-impact concerns. |
| Abatement / Utility Cutoff / Demolition Decision Readiness | $20,000–$50,000 | Hazmat review, clean-out planning, utility coordination, demolition bid solicitation, and permit-readiness review. |
| Remaining Immediate Site-Readiness Planning | $31,000–$72,000 | Current remaining range after separating the completed Phase II from future site-readiness needs. |
| Rounded Executive Planning Range | $35,000–$75,000 | Simple near-term planning target; not a final budget or DURA funding request. |
The prior Phase II proposal amount should not be represented as the final paid Phase II cost unless and until the final consultant invoice is reconciled.
All figures, ranges, and scenarios shown on this page are preliminary and for discussion purposes only. They are not final budgets, appraisals, commitments, guarantees, permits, environmental clearance, demolition approvals, or investment offerings.